XRP has reached a technical point that could determine whether its recent recovery develops into a broader uptrend or gives way to another sharp decline.
Crypto analyst CasiTrades believes the coming price movements will provide a clearer picture, highlighting several key levels that could either confirm a macro reversal or keep the bearish outlook intact.
CasiTrades explained in a tweet that her bearish outlook remains valid for now, while she emphasized that specific resistance levels could invalidate that scenario if XRP continues to gain strength.
🚨The Levels That Confirm a Macro XRP Reversal! 🚨
I'm watching ripple:native closely here, and for now, my purple bearish scenario continues to play out.
This 'Wave 2 correction' has now reached an .854 retrace, perfectly at $1.16. That's a deep retracement, but it's still… pic.twitter.com/Za3eb9XPEF
— CasiTrades 🔥 (@CasiTrades) July 21, 2026
Wave 2 Correction Remains Valid
CasiTrades stated that XRP’s current “Wave 2 correction” has now reached a 0.854 Fibonacci retracement level, landing almost exactly at $1.16. She described the retracement as deep but noted that it still falls within the acceptable range for a Wave 2 correction under Elliott Wave principles.
According to the analyst, the most important condition for maintaining the current bearish count is that XRP must not establish a new high above $1.20. A move beyond that level would invalidate what she refers to as the “purple bearish scenario” shown on her chart.
The accompanying chart highlights the recent rejection around $1.164 while mapping a decline toward lower support zones. It also illustrates multiple resistance levels above the current price that XRP would need to overcome before a more bullish outlook could be considered.
RSI Signals Support the Bearish Case
Beyond the price structure, CasiTrades also pointed to momentum indicators as evidence supporting her analysis.
She noted that XRP’s touch of the $1.164 level produced bearish Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergences across multiple timeframes. In technical analysis, bearish RSI divergence occurs when price reaches a higher high as momentum fails to do the same, which analysts often interpret as a possible sign that buying strength is weakening.
Based on those signals, CasiTrades said she expects XRP to begin breaking down with stronger downside momentum if the bearish scenario continues to unfold.
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Levels That Could Shift the Outlook
The analyst explained that a confirmation of the bearish path would involve XRP moving lower toward support zones around $0.93 and $0.87, both of which are marked on her chart as significant areas where buyers could eventually return.
However, she also outlined the conditions that would begin changing her outlook. The first requirement is for XRP to break above $1.20, which would invalidate the current bearish wave count. She added that the price would then need to clear $1.30, eliminating another alternative bearish scenario before advancing toward $1.65.
CasiTrades described the $1.65 area as the major macro resistance level that would meaningfully challenge the broader bearish outlook. Until those conditions are met, she maintained that traders should allow price action, rather than emotion, to guide their market analysis.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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