XRP is testing a familiar resistance level. Crypto analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) has identified $1.54 as a make-or-break price for XRP. That figure is the 50-week EMA, and XRP is trading directly beneath it as the weekly close approaches.
ChartNerd’s chart covers November 2024 through August 2026. It shows XRP peaking at $3.65 in mid-2025 before entering a prolonged decline. The red line tracks the 50-week EMA throughout that entire move. The most recent candles show XRP surging back up from lows near $1, reaching the $1.54 EMA level, and stalling.
A Pattern That Already Played Out Once
This situation is not new. It already happened in January 2026. XRP pushed above the 50-week EMA that week but failed to close above it.
The following week produced another failed attempt. From there, the asset entered a sharp decline. The February flash crash followed, and the downtrend extended for months afterward.
ChartNerd flagged the early warning signs on August 23. He noted that a failure to close above the 50-week EMA that evening would signal a larger retracement ahead, and that XRP had not yet cleared the danger zone. That warning proved accurate as XRP continued lower after that close, with other macroeconomic factors contributing to the decline.
🚨 ripple:native WEEKLY CLOSE INCOMING 🚨
Once again, XRP is facing another make-or-break moment beneath the 50 week EMA at $1.54. Without a clean follow through, a second weekly close below is likely to open the door for deeper retrace.
Invalidation: break and follow through… https://t.co/35OPSvnB2n pic.twitter.com/fmjis2tlgy
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) August 30, 2026
What ChartNerd Is Watching Now
The current post states the situation plainly. ChartNerd identifies $1.54 as another make-or-break level, warning that a second weekly close below the 50-week EMA would open the door to a deeper retracement.
The chart points to the January rejection, and the analyst expects a similar move if XRP does not reclaim the 50-week EMA. The invalidation level he gives is a clean break and follow-through above $1.54. Until that happens, the structure leans toward another downturn.
The Weekly Close Is the Deciding Factor
Weekly closes carry more weight than intraweek price action. XRP traded as high as $1.68 when it surged last week. However, it closed below $1.54. At the time of the chart, XRP traded at $1.4012, sitting below the $1.54 EMA.
A weekly close above $1.54 would shift the structure. A second consecutive close below it would confirm January’s pattern and open the path toward lower prices. The chart provides historical precedent, and the weekly close will provide the answer.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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