A respected market analyst and Chartered Market Technician (CMT), Tony “The Bull” Severino, shared a striking prediction that suggests the cryptocurrency could face a deeper correction in the months ahead.
Referencing the textbook Elliott Wave market cycle, Severino argues that Bitcoin is currently unfolding within a corrective phase that could lead to a short-term dip toward $62,000–$65,000 by June 2025, followed by a final capitulation to between $38,000 and $42,000 by April 2026.
If Bitcoin continues to follow this textbook Elliott Wave market cycle diagram, we’d see roughly $62-65K in June 2025, followed by the final bottom between $38-42K in April 2026
A waves often retrace to the larger degree wave 3/4, while wave C retraces to wave 3/4 of one lesser… pic.twitter.com/ojhQ5ltzZy
— Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT (@tonythebullBTC) April 6, 2025
Elliott Wave Theory: The Framework Behind the Forecast
Elliott Wave Theory is a well-established technical analysis framework that interprets market movements as cycles of crowd psychology, manifesting in impulsive and corrective waves. These waves are typically labeled in a five-wave upward structure followed by a three-wave corrective pattern. According to Severino, Bitcoin is currently navigating this corrective pattern, potentially forming the classic “ABC” structure that follows an extended bullish cycle.
In Severino’s view, the upcoming move toward $62K–$65K would represent the “A wave” within that correction — a bounce that retraces to the wave 3/4 zone of a larger degree move. Following this, the “C wave” would then complete the correction, possibly driving Bitcoin to the $38K–$42K zone, which correlates with wave 3/4 of a lesser degree (specifically the subwave iii/iv within the extended wave 3).
Market Context and Technical Confirmation
Bitcoin’s recent price action adds weight to Severino’s analysis. The leading cryptocurrency has struggled to break through key resistance zones above $80,000 and recently retraced back into the $77,000 range, triggering concerns of a larger correction brewing beneath the surface. This aligns with Severino’s assertion that the market may still be in the early stages of a deeper consolidation.
Historically, such ABC corrections have followed significant parabolic rallies, and while many investors remain long-term bullish on Bitcoin, the technical structure appears to favor a more measured and cautious approach in the near term.
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Implications for Traders and Long-Term Investors
Severino’s outlook may not sit well with overly enthusiastic bulls expecting an imminent return to all-time highs. However, for those attuned to cyclical market behavior, this period may offer opportunities to recalibrate strategies, secure profits, or prepare for strategic accumulation at lower levels.
The projected $38K–$42K range, while sharply lower than current prices, may ultimately serve as the final foundation for the next major bull run — especially if macroeconomic conditions and institutional demand continue to support Bitcoin’s long-term adoption narrative.
Tony “The Bull” Severino’s insights offer a sobering yet technically grounded perspective on Bitcoin’s immediate future. While the broader trend remains upward over the long haul, the path there may involve further volatility and deeper retracements than many anticipate. As always, traders and investors should balance technical analysis with macroeconomic awareness and prudent risk management.
As of report time, Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $76,725, exhibiting a 7.36% dip in price over the last 24 hours.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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