A community member directed a question at David Schwartz, Ripple’s former Chief Technology Officer, asking for his thoughts on the widely circulated $10,000 XRP price target.
The target has long circulated in XRP communities, often backed by Chris Burniske’s theoretical token valuation formula. Schwartz’s response was devastating to the thesis.
The Logic Schwartz Used
Schwartz made a straightforward expected-value argument. He stated that if rational, wealthy investors genuinely believed there was a 1% chance XRP could reach $10,000 within 10 years, competitive bidding alone would push the price to at least $20 today. He asked, “Why aren’t they? Conspiracy?”
The argument does not require XRP to fail. It only requires that no serious institutional capital has priced in even a small probability of that outcome. The current price tells that story on its own. Not enough big players strongly believe that XRP can reach those heights in a few years.
If there were a few very rich, very rational people who really believed that there was a 1% chance that XRP could hit $10K in 10 years, they'd bid XRP up to at least $20 today. Why aren't they? Conspiracy?
— David 'JoelKatz' Schwartz (@JoelKatz) May 1, 2026
The Market Cap Reality
BTC to Zero (@BTC2Zero), who asked Schwartz the initial question, added an anchor to the exchange. At $10,000 per token, XRP’s market capitalization would reach $617 trillion.
That figure exceeds global GDP many times over. While some analysts believe XRP is not limited by its market cap, the $10,000 target requires a scale of value that has no precedent in any asset class.
Pushback From the XRP Community
One reply suggested wealthy investors would purchase XRP over-the-counter, bypassing exchanges and limiting price impact. Schwartz acknowledged the point but noted that they “wouldn’t stop until they had moved the price or run out of money,” as these investors would start moving the price early.
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Another account asked whether Ripple could use its own infrastructure to drive XRP’s price above $100. Schwartz countered that while such an argument may have carried some weight previously, circumstances have changed significantly. Ripple has no control over XRP, and cannot suddenly raise its price as many in the community believe.
What This Exchange Reveals
Schwartz did not attack XRP holders who are bullish on the asset, but he applied basic financial reasoning to a price target that circulates heavily in retail communities. His point is that markets price in probabilities. A $10,000 XRP would require the largest asset valuation in human history. The absence of institutional positioning at current prices reflects that reality.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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