As recently asserted by PlanB, Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is still on the course to hit $100,000, according to both the stock-to-flow (S2F) and logarithmic regression models. The pseudonymous analyst doubles down on this prediction despite recent failures of the S2F and Floor models.
In a recent tweet, PlanB tapped to both the S2F and the logarithmic regression models to suggest that the flagship digital currency has the potential to rise up to a six-digit price level by the end of 2023.
PlanB tweeted, “Both S2F and logarithmic regression point to $100K in 2023.”
Both S2F and logarithmic regression point to $100K in 2023. pic.twitter.com/NHqoRpEmUl
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 14, 2022
The popular analyst further explained that he had compared Bitcoin to other assets such as Gold and Real Estate. It should be noted that the S2F ratio of Gold and Real Estate are 60 and 100 respectively, with the latter having a market capitalization 10x larger than that of Gold.
In that regard, PlanB concluded that it would really be surprising if Bitcoin (BTC) will have a lower market cap than gold after the next halving when the BTC S2F ratio rises above 100.
I explicitly try not to do that, by also looking at other assets like gold (S2F ratio ~60, market value $10T) and real estate (S2F ratio ~100, market value $100T). It would really surprise me if bitcoin will have a lower market value than gold after next halving when BTC S2F 100+
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 14, 2022
It’s worth noting that Bitcoin halving plays out every four years. So, the next halving will take place in early 2024.
How PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model Works and Its Past Failures
PlanB is the anonymous Twitter analyst behind the popular stock-to-flow (S2F) model and its variations. The model sees the stock as the size of existing reserves and the flow as the annual supply of new Bitcoin (BTC) in circulation.
Indeed, the model gained popularity among Bitcoin bulls due to its accuracy. But its popularity is starting to dwindle due to its recent failures.
S2F failures: the model predicted that the price of Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 by the end of 2021, but the reverse was the case. At the time of writing, BTC is still trading far below the $50,000 level.
Also, the analyst has another model known as the “floor model” or “worst-case scenario.” This model displayed high accuracy for a couple of months. Howbeit, its projection of Bitcoin prices of $98,000 and $135,000 failed in November and December 2021.
Despite the number of failures recorded, PlanB still remains resolute that his models are still potent, believing that a six-digit price level is inevitable for Bitcoin (BTC).
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