Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has published a monthly chart study on XRP, examining the relationship between the 21-month EMA and the 33-period MA.
The study centers on a bearish crossover between these two moving averages and how XRP’s macro bottom has formed around that crossover in two previous cycles.
In Cycle 1, XRP formed its macro bottom 244 days after the bearish crossover. In Cycle 2, the bottom arrived 122 days before the crossover. The gap between the bottom and the crossover compressed by 50%, and the timing reversed. In Cycle 2, the bearish crossover confirmed a bottom that had already formed rather than preceding one.
#XRP – 21 EMA & 33-PERIOD MA #BEARISH CROSS:
TWO HISTORICAL CYCLES. ONE BEARISH CROSSOVER. A MAJOR SHIFT IN TIMING! 👀
I'm studying XRP's MONTHLY chart:
🟡 21-MONTH EMA
🟢 33-PERIOD MAHISTORY REVEALS SOMETHING FASCINATING!
▫️ CYCLE 1: +244 DAYS#XRP formed its MACRO BOTTOM… pic.twitter.com/tIs1jx1zUL— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) October 26, 2026
The 50% Compression and What It Suggests
Egrag Crypto applies the same 50% compression to project a potential gap for Cycle 3. That calculation produces a 61-day window.
The analyst is explicit about the uncertainty: the bottom could arrive 61 days before or after the crossover, given that the historical relationship already reversed once between cycles.
Assuming an October 2026 crossover, Egrag Crypto outlines five approximate timing windows. August 2026 represents a potential bottom before the cross.
December 2026 places it 61 days after. February 2027 repeats the previous absolute gap of 122 days. April 2027 sits at the midpoint between 122 and 244 days. June 2027 would repeat the full Cycle 1 gap of 244 days.
Three Macro Scenarios for XRP
XRP has already dropped approximately 61% from $3.30 to $1.28. Egrag Crypto raises the question of whether the bearish crossover is confirming a correction that has already occurred. Moving averages are lagging indicators, and that context matters to how the analyst reads the current setup.
Egrag Crypto presents three scenarios. The bullish case holds $1.25 as the bottom, with higher lows developing and XRP reclaiming its monthly moving averages.
The intermediate case sees a liquidity sweep below $1.25, opening levels at $1.20, $1.13, and $1.07, which the analyst connects to an Expanded Flat projection. The bearish case involves a sustained loss of $1.07, which Egrag Crypto says could expose the $0.80 region.
The Limits of the Model
Egrag Crypto closes with a clear disclaimer. Only two historical cycles exist. The 50% compression and the 61-day projection are mathematical observations, not a proven timing law. The analyst states: “Price action must confirm.”
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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