XRP entered July at a technical level that EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) believes could shape the next stage of its long-term trend.
In his latest analysis, he compared the current monthly chart with XRP’s previous market cycles, highlighting moving average behavior that preceded major rallies.
The chart focuses on the relationship between the 50-period simple moving average (SMA), the 88 SMA, and a resistance zone near $1.65. It also projects upside targets of $7.50 and $42 if XRP clears that barrier.
#XRP – The $1.65 Macro Gate 👀:
🏳️#XRP has opened July below the 50 SMA on the monthly timeframe.
🏳️Historically, in Cycle 1 and Cycle 2, $XRP did bottom perfectly at the around 88 SMA.
🏳️It went deeper and tested the 88 SMA zone before the real macro expansion started.
🏳️So… pic.twitter.com/sbL1n66EYA
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) July 1, 2026
Revisiting a Familiar Setup
The analyst noted that XRP opened July below the 50 SMA on the monthly chart. He believes that position resembles the structure seen during the asset’s first two major market cycles.
According to his post, XRP “did bottom perfectly at the around 88 SMA” in both Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 before beginning a sustained advance. His chart shows price testing the 88 SMA before launching into strong rallies. The current setup places XRP between the 50 SMA above and the 88 SMA below, creating a structure that closely resembles those earlier cycles.
Possible Paths From Current Levels
The analyst assigned probabilities to three scenarios. He believes the highest-probability outcome, at 55%, is for XRP to retest or briefly wick into the 88 SMA before beginning its next expansion.
His second scenario carries a 30% probability. In that case, XRP quickly reclaims the 50 SMA, allowing this cycle to advance without another test of the 88 SMA. The remaining 15% scenario calls for additional time before the next major move develops.
The Defining Level
Despite presenting multiple possibilities, EGRAG CRYPTO repeatedly returns to the same resistance level. He described $1.65 as the gate before adding, “Break $1.65, and the chart changes completely.”
The chart identifies a resistance zone around $1.61 to $1.65, which aligns with the 50 SMA. A move above that area would place XRP back above this long-term moving average, a development the analyst associates with renewed strength.
Is XRP Going to $42?
Once XRP moves above $1.65, the chart identifies $7.50 as the first major expansion target. It also projects $42 as the “ultimate historical measured-move target.” Those projections are based on historical advances shown on the chart, including gains of more than 1,200% and 7,000% during earlier cycles after similar technical structures.
The analyst believes the most likely outcome remains another test of the 88 SMA before XRP begins a larger advance. However, he added that a quick recovery above the 50 SMA could produce “a new version” of the current cycle.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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