Stellar (XLM) has reached a critical turning point in its price trajectory, following the recent loss of its 10-day simple moving average (SMA) as a support level.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez drew attention to this development in a post on X, stating, “Stellar $XLM just lost the 10-day SMA as support: bullish above, bearish below!” His warning underscores a pivotal technical shift that now defines XLM’s short-term market outlook.
Breaking Below the 10-Day SMA
After rallying from below $0.30 to over $0.50 in early July, XLM showed strong momentum. The 10-day SMA consistently provided support throughout the rally, but that support was decisively lost over the weekend. The drop came on increased trading volume, a signal that bearish momentum could be gaining control.
As of report time, Stellar trades between $0.42 and $0.43, down roughly 6% in the past 24 hours and nearly 8% over the past week. The broken 10-day SMA now acts as resistance. As Ali emphasized, the token is in bullish territory only if it reclaims this level. Remaining below it leaves the door open for further downside pressure.
Stellar $XLM just lost the 10-day SMA as support: bullish above, bearish below! pic.twitter.com/f3wkMHZhqd
— Ali (@ali_charts) July 29, 2025
Key Levels and Short-Term Risks
With the 10-day SMA flipped to resistance, the immediate downside target lies at $0.42. If this level fails to hold, the next areas of support are $0.38 and $0.34, zones where XLM previously consolidated during its earlier ascent.
Technical indicators further validate the caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped near oversold levels, suggesting weakening momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has flipped bearish, and long positions are being liquidated rapidly. Open interest has also declined, pointing to reduced conviction from bullish traders.
Despite these bearish indicators, a potential rebound isn’t off the table. A strong move back above the 10-day SMA, ideally with rising volume, could set the stage for a retest of the $0.45 to $0.47 range, and possibly even the recent $0.50 high.
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Long-Term Structure Still Intact
While the short-term setup looks fragile, Stellar’s long-term structure remains bullish. The token is still trading above both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, currently around $0.32 and $0.31, respectively. These longer-term averages provide deeper support and indicate that the broader trend has not yet reversed.
Analyst Javon Marks has drawn comparisons to XLM’s 2015–2018 cycle, suggesting that a recovery above $0.79 could trigger a much larger breakout, potentially even toward $8.00 in the long run. While this scenario is highly speculative, it shows that long-term bullish sentiment still exists, provided short-term momentum can stabilize.
Ali Martinez’s technical insight captures the essence of XLM’s current dilemma: bullish above the 10-day SMA, bearish below. Stellar now trades at a crossroads, with its short-term fate hinging on whether bulls can reclaim lost support.
Until then, the pressure remains to the downside, but a recovery could quickly swing momentum in the other direction. As traders await the next decisive move, all eyes remain on the 10-day SMA, a simple line with serious implications.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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