Earlier in 2026, analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) published a call that most XRP holders did not want to hear. He predicted XRP would sweep below $1 in 2026. Many in the community dismissed it.
The asset did drop below $1 in August before recovering to a high of $1.68. ChartNerd was right, and he has not changed his overall outlook since. He has now shown the community that the warning signs are appearing and XRP could revisit $1 by the end of the year.
The Warning Signs Are Back
XRP is now trading at $1.27, down 1.9% in 24 hours. ChartNerd sees the setup deteriorating again. He states the asset is showing “early warning signs that the pathway toward a deeper retrace to $1 is opening.” He adds that this scenario has been on his radar for over two months.
The asset is sitting around local support at $1.25-$1.30. ChartNerd says XRP needs a weekly close above $1.34 to invalidate a deeper decline. Without that, the bearish path remains open.
We're seeing early $XRP warning signs that the pathway toward a deeper retrace to $1 is opening. If it unfolds, don't panic; this has been on our radar for over 2 months. We remain around local support ($1.30/25) but need a weekly close above $1.34 to invalidate a deeper decline. https://t.co/lMYMnKjcFp pic.twitter.com/fDlzTz0ZM2
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) October 18, 2026
The Key Levels to Watch
ChartNerd’s analysis identifies $1.45 as the key resistance level to overcome if local support holds. He states that even if short-term relief comes, any recovery beneath that level and beneath the 50-week EMA “is still just relief before a $1.00 retest.” His year-end outlook remains consistent.
His base case places the bottom near $0.98. He acknowledges that $0.90 and $0.70 remain possible outcomes, though he considers them considerably less likely. However, other analysts have set targets as low as $0.65.
ChartNerd has maintained that XRP needs to reclaim the 50-week EMA before any recovery can be taken seriously.
How the Community Reacted
Reactions to ChartNerd’s post were varied. One commenter said he expects the weekly close to come in around $1.24, expressing doubt that the $1.34 level would hold. Another said the price had already hit $1.25 and questioned whether it would hold there.
One commenter went further, calling for XRP to drop to $0.88. Another suggested $0.589 was back on the table. At least one community member urged others to be cautious about following ChartNerd’s predictions, suggesting the upcoming Swell conference could be a relevant bullish factor.
Where Things Stand
XRP is at a decision point, and the $1.25-$1.30 support zone is being tested now. A weekly close above $1.34 would shift the short-term picture. Failing that, ChartNerd’s roadmap points back toward $1 before the year closes. He called it accurately before, and the warning signs are here again.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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