As global macroeconomic signals begin to align and liquidity conditions ease, the cryptocurrency market finds itself on the precipice of a potential breakout. According to a detailed analysis shared by prominent market commentator Donny on X, Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to reach new all-time highs between May and June 2025. Donny’s thesis is rooted in a confluence of technical, macroeconomic, and sentiment-driven indicators, suggesting a textbook re-accumulation pattern is currently unfolding in the BTC market.
Bitcoin All-Time Highs in May/June 2025
This is the full macro breakdown.
All the charts, confluence, timing, and why $BTC will lead.
Before we begin, please repost and follow me @DonnyDicey — I put crazy effort in this one.
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— Donny (@DonnyDicey) April 6, 2025
Bitcoin’s Structural Setup and Liquidity Landscape
Donny highlights the current BTC price action as a classic re-accumulation phase. After deviating below the range low — a move that flushed out retail participants and handed positions to institutional players — Bitcoin is now attempting to establish a new higher low. This higher low could form around the $73.6K level, which Donny refers to as the “BlackRock Accumulation” zone. This area is perceived as a critical support level, heavily defended by major market participants likely associated with the BlackRock ETF inflows.
From a technical standpoint, a move above $95K would confirm the end of the accumulation phase and initiate a new leg into price discovery. This threshold coincides with a “wall of short liquidations” — a cluster of stop-losses from leveraged short positions. Once breached, these positions could act as rocket fuel for BTC’s ascent, creating a cascading liquidation event that propels the asset into uncharted territory.
DXY, Global Liquidity, and Macro Tailwinds
One of the core arguments in Donny’s breakdown is the inverse relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and global liquidity. He correctly called the top of the DXY on February 12, citing a multi-year bearish PO3 pattern. The projected technical target is a breakdown to the low range, while the macro target rests below the 90 mark.
This bearish outlook for the DXY coincides with a breakout in Global M2 — a measure of broad money supply — from a multi-year range. This expansion in liquidity, when paired with a declining dollar, creates an environment where risk assets thrive. Bitcoin, given its high beta and sensitivity to liquidity conditions, stands to benefit the most. Donny notes that the intersection of DXY and M2 trends — the so-called “kiss” on the charts — would serve as a pivotal moment that affirms the start of a sustained bullish uptrend in BTC.
Bond Market Breakdown and the Impending Fed Pivot
The U.S. bond market is providing early signals of a Federal Reserve policy shift. The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (US02Y), widely regarded as a forward-looking indicator of Fed policy, recently broke down from a major distribution pattern. Similarly, the U.S. 10-year yield (US10Y) faced a sharp rejection at 4.4% and sliced through the 4.1% level — further reinforcing the notion of an imminent pivot.
These developments align with the U.S. Treasury’s urgent need to refinance trillions of dollars in debt starting in July. Lower yields make such refinancing operations more favorable, and the bond market appears to be front-running this requirement.
Inflation Metrics and the Real-Time Data Advantage
While the Fed traditionally monitors lagging indicators like CPI and PCE, Donny emphasizes the importance of real-time data from sources like Truflation. According to Truflation, inflation has remained below the 2% threshold since March 1st. These readings are expected to filter into official CPI and PCE prints on April 10 and April 30, respectively.
With energy prices — especially oil — undergoing significant declines, inflation expectations are moderating quickly. Lower oil prices reduce input costs across industries, cooling inflation and giving the Fed more room to maneuver. All signs point to a potential policy shift as early as the next FOMC meeting on May 7.
ISM, Sentiment, and Easing Conditions
Donny anticipates that the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) indicators, which typically lag other macro data, will soon start reflecting the improved liquidity conditions. As business confidence and activity rebound, this could further reinforce bullish sentiment across risk assets.
Currently, market sentiment remains subdued due to geopolitical tensions and the shock impact of new tariffs introduced under the Trump administration. However, Donny argues this fear-driven drawdown may be precisely what the Fed needs to justify a pivot. If the Fed adopts a more dovish stance in response to softer data, the markets could stage a dramatic reversal.
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Fed Pivot Timeline and Election-Year Dynamics
The May–July period marks a critical policy window. The Trump administration, aiming to refinance debt at more favorable rates and implement a fresh economic agenda, benefits from a dovish Fed. The timing of this policy shift is particularly advantageous given the broader political and fiscal landscape. Donny outlines a potential roadmap:
From April to July, he expects low inflation prints and soft macro data to prompt the Fed’s official pivot. This would likely trigger a broad market rally. Between August and September, attention will turn to inflationary pressures from new tariffs. Should inflation re-emerge, the Fed may halt its easing campaign, risking a cycle top. If easing persists into Q4 and inflation remains under control, BTC could enter a prolonged bullish phase, with a renewed rally into the 2026 midterm elections.
BTC Leading the Market While SPX Lags
Another notable point in Donny’s analysis is BTC’s current outperformance relative to traditional equities. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) continues to bleed lower, pricing in recessionary fears. BTC, however, maintains a clean re-accumulation structure, similar to its behavior in late 2023. Back then, the market was rattled by recession fears, yet BTC front-ran the pivot, catalyzed in part by the anticipation and eventual approval of BlackRock’s ETF.
Donny believes we are witnessing a similar setup today. BTC is sniffing out the upcoming policy shift, and a potential macro or regulatory catalyst — akin to the ETF announcement — could ignite the next rally leg. Whether BTC dips to test the $73.6K support or not, the path to price discovery appears open.
Gold’s Role and the Liquidity Rotation Thesis
BTC’s price structure is also mirroring that of gold, albeit one timeframe behind. Donny identifies a macro 2.618 Fibonacci extension in play for both assets. As gold completes its rally and potentially tops out, a risk-on rotation could shift liquidity from defensive assets like gold into high-beta plays like BTC.
This transition is typical in macro cycles where capital first flows into safe-haven assets before rotating into growth and speculative vehicles as confidence returns. BTC stands to gain significantly from this rotation, particularly given its favorable technical and macro setup.
Market Sentiment and the Perfect Reversal Setup
Sentiment is often the final piece in the puzzle, and it currently paints a contrarian bullish case. Many market participants are sidelined or risk-averse following the recent downturn, creating an environment ripe for sharp reversals. With ample liquidity and light positioning, any confirmation of easing through macro data or Fed statements could trigger renewed optimism, FOMO, and euphoria.
Donny underscores that BTC does not need SPX to lead for it to run. The current dislocation between these assets is not a cause for concern but rather an indicator that BTC is once again ahead of the curve.
All indicators suggest that Bitcoin is gearing up for a major move. With the re-accumulation structure intact, macro tailwinds aligning, bond markets signaling a pivot, and sentiment at an inflection point, Donny’s thesis of new all-time highs by May–June 2025 appears increasingly plausible. As liquidity conditions improve and policy clarity emerges, BTC could once again lead the charge into a new era of price discovery.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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