Prediction markets are tracking two separate outcomes for the CLARITY Act. Vet (@Vet_X0), a validator on the XRP Ledger, posted charts from both Polymarket and Kalshi that highlight this divide.
The Senate voting on the bill before the August recess carries a 70.2% probability on Kalshi. The bill being fully signed into law before December 31, 2026, sits at just 37% on Polymarket. Intriguingly, these are not the same question.
Keep in mind the Senate vote is just one part for the Clarity Act to be signed into law, seen as likely before August recess. Higher probability.
Getting all steps including presidential signature by dec 31st 2026 seems to be a tight deadline. Lower probability.
Kalshi, that… pic.twitter.com/VXlaAMbO2H
— Vet (@Vet_X0) July 17, 2026
The Senate Vote Is One Step
A Senate floor vote before the August recess looks increasingly likely. Kalshi puts that probability at 70.2%, up 23.2 points. Sen. Cynthia Lummis recently said, “We are ready” during a Fox interview. If the Senate votes and passes the bill, the House would then need to receive and reconcile any differences before it goes to Trump’s desk for signature.
That full chain of events completing before the end of 2026 is what carries the lower odds. The legislative calendar is tight, but a Senate vote alone would represent meaningful progress.
Reading the Polymarket Chart
The Polymarket contract, which tracks whether the CLARITY Act gets signed into law in 2026, has seen a sharp decline. Odds peaked above 80% earlier in the year. They now sit at 37%, down 28 points. Over $1.84 million in volume has traded on this contract, giving it considerably more liquidity than the Kalshi market, which has just $5,089 in volume.
Vet’s post highlights this liquidity gap. A market with thin volume can move sharply on very little activity, making its signals less reliable.
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Why the Gap Exists
The CLARITY Act has faced real obstacles on its path through the Senate. Democratic opposition has centered on ethics concerns. The Republican majority needs seven votes from Democrats for the 60-vote threshold. That remains a challenge even if the bill reaches the floor.
The death of Sen. Lindsey Graham on July 11 also narrowed the Republican majority further. Trump called on the Senate to pass the bill in Graham’s memory, citing Graham’s strong support of it and competition from China on both digital assets and artificial intelligence as reasons to act quickly.
What Happens After August?
If the bill clears the Senate before recess, Trump could sign it quickly. Some commenters pointed out that he could sign it the next day. However, if it misses that window, the path narrows significantly. The November midterms would dominate the legislative agenda for the rest of the year, leaving little room for floor debate on major bills.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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