Crypto analyst ChartNerd has shared a new technical outlook for XRP that focuses on what he describes as a “third and final retest” within the asset’s long-term cyclical structure.
The analyst argued that if the current setup succeeds, XRP could follow a path similar to previous major breakout periods seen in 2017, 2021, and the current 2025 cycle.
The chart attached to the post highlights what ChartNerd calls a “multi-year ascending support” trendline that has guided XRP’s historical market structure across several cycles. According to the visual analysis, each major correction phase led to strong upward expansions after XRP completed repeated retests of the support area.
ChartNerd wrote, “If successful, this third and final retest within XRP’s cyclical structure will mark a launchpad similar to the 2017/2021 and 2025 markups.” He also added that even if the setup fails, he remains positioned in the market and thanked crypto commentator Moon Lambo for previous discussions on the asset.
If successful, this third and final retest within $XRP's cyclical structure will mark a launchpad similar to the 2017/2021 and 2025 markups. If it doesn't, we're positioned regardless ☺️ thank you @MoonLamboio 🤝🏻 pic.twitter.com/iQSGk316Ni
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) May 17, 2026
Historical Cycles Show Large Percentage Expansions
The chart presented in the post compares historical XRP market cycles dating back to 2014. It identifies several “creation” and “retest” zones before large upward price movements occur.
One section of the chart shows XRP recording gains above 68,000% during an earlier cycle, as later cycles displayed smaller but still significant percentage increases, including 1,091%, 696%, and a projected 2,014% move in the latest structure.
The latest projection on the chart suggests that if XRP follows similar historical pattern, the asset could experience another sharp upward movement after completing the current retest zone.
Moon Lambo Addresses XRP Price Expectations
In a video attached to the discussion, crypto commentator Moon Lambo explained why he takes ChartNerd’s analysis seriously despite the chart’s aggressive upside targets. He noted that ChartNerd has consistently warned that XRP could still fall below the $1 level before any major rally begins.
Moon Lambo emphasized that the analyst is not guaranteeing such a decline, but instead presenting it as a possible scenario within the broader market structure. He also pointed out that ChartNerd remains bullish on XRP over the long term and has previously suggested the asset could eventually reach as high as $27 if the projected breakout materializes.
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Crypto Market Liquidity Could Drive Large Moves
According to Moon Lambo, many people outside the crypto industry dismiss large percentage targets for being unrealistic. However, he argued that digital asset markets operate differently from larger traditional financial markets due to lower liquidity and overall participation levels.
He explained that when significant capital enters the crypto market during bullish periods, price movements can accelerate rapidly because it takes comparatively less money to move valuations higher. Moon Lambo stated that this market dynamic is one reason why digital assets have historically produced outsized returns during strong bull cycles.
The discussion arrives as XRP continues to trade within a closely watched range while analysts debate whether the asset is preparing for another expansion phase. For supporters of the bullish thesis, the current “third retest” structure shown by ChartNerd could become one of the most important technical formations in XRP’s ongoing market cycle.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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