Recent technical analysis shared by crypto analyst STEPHISCRYPTO places renewed emphasis on a long-observed pattern on XRP’s three-day price chart.
The focus of the analysis is the behavior of the exponential moving average, or EMA, ribbon, and its historical relationship with extended price declines. Rather than concentrating on short-term volatility, the observation centers on sustained trend behavior that has unfolded repeatedly over multiple market cycles.
According to the analysis, whenever the EMA ribbon flips into a bearish configuration and price action remains consistently below it, XRP has historically entered prolonged drawdown phases.
These periods were not brief pullbacks or temporary reactions to market events. Instead, they developed into multi-month declines that reshaped the broader trend structure.
On the 3-day $XRP chart, every time the EMA ribbon flips bearish and price holds below it, a major drawdown follows.
These moves weren’t quick wicks — they were multi-month trend declines, ranging from −27% to −66%, with deeper losses occurring when the ribbon stayed bearish… pic.twitter.com/2dn876h5L3
— STEPH IS CRYPTO (@Steph_iscrypto) December 20, 2025
Historical Drawdowns Linked to Bearish Ribbon Phases
The attached chart highlights several instances dating back to earlier market cycles where this condition appeared. In each case, once the EMA ribbon turned bearish and price failed to reclaim it, XRP experienced a significant downside. The documented declines ranged from approximately 27 percent on the lower end to losses exceeding 60 percent in the more severe cases.
A notable element of the analysis is the relationship between duration and depth. The longer the EMA ribbon remained bearish, the deeper the eventual drawdown became.
Periods when the price stayed suppressed beneath the ribbon for extended stretches corresponded with the largest percentage declines. This suggests that the signal is not only directional but also time-sensitive, with persistence acting as an amplifying factor.
Current Market Structure and Technical Implications
The most recent section of the chart shows XRP once again interacting with the EMA ribbon after a strong upward move earlier in the cycle. Price has begun to stall near the ribbon area, prompting renewed attention to whether the structure will flip bearish and hold. The analyst emphasizes that, historically, there have been no recorded instances where this specific combination of conditions failed to lead to a broader decline.
This does not imply immediate downside or predict precise price targets. Instead, the analysis frames the EMA ribbon as a higher-timeframe risk signal rather than a short-term trading trigger. Its relevance lies in identifying environments where downside risk has historically outweighed upside continuation.
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No Recorded Exceptions to the Signal
One of the central points highlighted is consistency. Across multiple years and market phases, the analyst notes that this EMA ribbon behavior on the three-day chart has shown no exceptions. Every occurrence where the ribbon flipped bearish, and price remained below it, resulted in a notable drawdown rather than a sideways consolidation or rapid recovery.
As XRP moves through its current market phase, this historical context places added importance on how the price behaves relative to the EMA ribbon in the coming weeks.
While market conditions can evolve, the analysis highlights that this particular technical signal has repeatedly aligned with extended corrective periods, making it a key factor for longer-term market participants to monitor closely.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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