Market analyst Matt Hughes has drawn attention to a critical technical development for XRP that could signal a major shift in its performance relative to Bitcoin. Hughes noted that the XRP/BTC trading pair is approaching the monthly Ichimoku Cloud, a resistance level it has not surpassed since 2018.
A confirmed move above this level may indicate the start of a sustained period in which XRP outperforms Bitcoin.
Currently, XRP trades against BTC at 0.00002501, positioning it just below the Ichimoku Cloud. This cloud has acted as a strong barrier for nearly eight years, repeatedly limiting upward momentum. According to Hughes, breaking above this structure would be a decisive long-term signal, potentially ending XRP’s extended period of underperformance relative to BTC.
Something incredibly bullish is developing on the $XRP/ $BTC chart that has not happened in a very long time.
Its about to break above the monthly Ichimoku cloud for the first time since 2018 which means $XRP is about to massively outperform $BTC pic.twitter.com/rArWcauvjM
— The Great Mattsby (@matthughes13) January 5, 2026
Historical Significance of the Ichimoku Cloud
The Ichimoku Cloud has historically served as a reliable indicator of XRP’s relative strength. Between 2015 and early 2017, XRP traded below the cloud, displaying little directional momentum against BTC.
That changed in early 2017, when XRP broke decisively above the cloud, initiating a significant rally. The pair surged from approximately 0.00002 BTC to a peak near 0.00023 BTC by January 2018, a period during which XRP outperformed Bitcoin significantly.
Following the 2018 peak, the trend reversed. XRP/BTC fell back into the cloud and eventually dropped below it, signaling a long-term shift in momentum.
From 2018 through 2020, XRP underperformed Bitcoin consistently, moving from above 0.0002 BTC to as low as 0.0000065 BTC. Attempts to recover during this period were repeatedly rejected by resistance levels within the cloud, reinforcing Bitcoin’s dominance.
Between 2021 and 2023, XRP/BTC remained largely sideways beneath the cloud. Even amid the 2021 bull market, XRP failed to reclaim this resistance, reflecting persistent pressure from regulatory uncertainty and the ongoing SEC lawsuit.
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Current Market Setup and Potential Breakout
The latter half of 2024 brought some improvement. After a prolonged downturn from August 2023 to June 2024, XRP began forming higher lows, and the Ichimoku Cloud started to flatten. The price began to press against the cloud instead of retreating, suggesting diminishing downward momentum.
Although bearish conditions in Q4 2025 temporarily halted XRP’s advance, the altcoin has posted a 27% gain in 2026, outperforming the broader market. The XRP/BTC pair now trades at the lower edge of the monthly Ichimoku Cloud near 0.000025 BTC. Hughes emphasized that the current cloud structure appears weaker than in previous years, resembling conditions before the 2017 breakout.
A monthly close above the Ichimoku Cloud would indicate a meaningful trend reversal, ending seven years of underperformance against Bitcoin. Such a development would not require Bitcoin to decline but would suggest that XRP could begin appreciating at a faster rate than BTC.
If XRP were to reach the 2018 peak of 0.00023 BTC while Bitcoin trades around $93,000, the implied XRP price could approach $21. Hughes notes that while momentum is building, other indicators, such as Bollinger Bands, suggest XRP’s trend is still somewhat weaker than Bitcoin’s.
Overall, analysts highlight this as a key technical juncture for altcoin, with a breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud representing a potential shift in its long-term trajectory versus Bitcoin.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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