XRP continues to test the patience of traders who keep waiting for a decisive shift in market structure. Short-term rallies spark hope, but repeated rejections remind investors that not every bounce signals a new bullish phase. In technical markets, structure matters more than sentiment, and XRP remains trapped in a zone that demands caution.
In a recent X post, Bird, a DropCoin developer and long-time XRP observer, shared a chart-based assessment that underscores why enthusiasm should remain restrained. His analysis focuses on XRP’s daily timeframe, where price action still respects a clearly defined descending channel that has controlled the trend since mid-2025.
The Bear Channel Still Defines XRP’s Trend
XRP has printed a series of lower highs and lower lows for months, forming a descending bear channel that continues to guide price movement. Each attempt to push higher has met resistance along the upper boundary of this structure. As long as price trades within this channel, the broader trend remains bearish by technical definition.
$XRP really needs to escape this bear channel to properly confirm a breakout and flip bullish again.
Until we get a clean break out of here and hold above the channel, any upside is still technically a relief rally rather than a trend reversal!
So I wont be getting excited till… pic.twitter.com/UyHUzBPSos
— Bird (@Bird_XRPL) February 4, 2026
Bird stresses that traders should not confuse short-term upside with a confirmed reversal. The market often produces countertrend moves during downtrends, especially after extended selling pressure. These moves can feel powerful, but they rarely change the dominant structure without a clear breakout.
Why $2.20 Is the Line That Matters
The upper resistance of XRP’s bear channel currently aligns near the $2.20 level. This zone has repeatedly capped price advances, making it the most important technical threshold on the chart. Bird explains that only a clean breakout above this level, followed by sustained trading above the channel, would flip the technical bias back to bullish.
Without that confirmation, any upside remains a relief rally rather than a true trend reversal. Relief rallies often occur as sellers pause or take profits, but they usually fade if buyers fail to reclaim structural control.
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Relief Rallies vs. Structural Breakouts
Understanding the difference between a relief rally and a breakout helps investors manage expectations and risk. Relief rallies offer short-term opportunities but also carry a high probability of rejection. Structural breakouts, by contrast, reflect a shift in market psychology and capital flow.
Bird’s reluctance to turn bullish before $2.20 reflects disciplined technical thinking. He prioritizes confirmation over anticipation, a mindset that often separates consistent traders from emotional ones.
Market Context Adds to the Caution
XRP’s technical setup unfolds against a backdrop of broader crypto uncertainty in 2026. Regulatory developments, shifting liquidity conditions, and cautious risk appetite continue to influence price behavior across the market. These factors reinforce the need for clear, chart-based confirmation rather than hope-driven narratives.
For now, XRP remains technically constrained. As Bird’s analysis makes clear, the chart still holds the final say. Until XRP escapes its bear channel and holds above $2.20, patience remains the most rational strategy.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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