XRP has spent years building a base while much of the market focused elsewhere. Extended consolidation phases often signal exhaustion rather than weakness, especially when price action compresses within a clearly defined long-term structure.
As volatility begins to return, analysts are paying closer attention to XRP’s macro chart, where historical symmetry is starting to reassert itself.
That renewed focus intensified after CW, a materials science PhD and crypto analyst, published a detailed log-scale TradingView chart outlining XRP’s full market cycle. His analysis frames the current price action as a transition into a new expansion phase following a prolonged bottoming process.
$XRP is breaking out of its bottom and preparing for a second rally in Phase 4.
The expected target according to the pattern is $21.5. pic.twitter.com/UgQQB3eHvQ
— CW (@CW8900) January 4, 2026
Breaking Down XRP’s Four-Phase Cycle
CW’s model divides XRP’s historical price action into four phases: early accumulation, breakout acceleration, peak expansion, and long-term correction. According to this framework, XRP entered a deep corrective phase after topping at $3.84 in early 2018. Price then spent several years forming a structural bottom, a process that mirrors earlier consolidation periods seen before major rallies.
By applying a logarithmic scale, the analysis accounts for XRP’s exponential growth behavior during prior cycles. This approach avoids linear distortions and allows more accurate comparisons between past and present market phases.
Why Phase 4 Signals a Potential Rally
CW identifies the current market structure as the early stage of Phase 4, the expansion phase that historically delivers the strongest price appreciation. Using Fibonacci extensions derived from previous cycle highs and retracement zones, the model projects a potential upside target near $21.5.
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This projection aligns with XRP’s recent price behavior. As of report time, XRP trades around $2.14, marking a 14% gain over the past month. That upward shift supports the view that price has moved beyond accumulation and into a trend continuation phase.
Technical Context Behind the $21.5 Target
The $21.5 projection stems from Fibonacci extensions measured from the 2018 peak, rather than short-term price fluctuations. This method reflects proportional growth patterns that XRP has historically respected during bull cycles. The use of a log-scale chart further strengthens the projection by normalizing volatility across different market eras.
While technical models cannot predict timing, they can define realistic zones where momentum typically accelerates once structural resistance gives way.
Probability, Not Certainty
CW’s analysis does not present a guaranteed outcome. Market structure defines probability, not inevitability, and external forces such as macroeconomic shifts and regulatory developments can always alter the trajectory.
Still, from a pattern-based perspective, XRP’s breakout from its long-term bottom places Phase 4 firmly on analysts’ radar, where sustained expansion has historically followed prolonged consolidation.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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