Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, and his team have assessed the likelihood of various altcoin-based spot ETFs receiving approval in the United States this year. Their analysis suggests that an XRP ETF has a 65% chance of being approved in 2025, making it the least likely among the leading altcoins currently being considered.
One of the key factors affecting the approval odds of an XRP ETF is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) stance on the asset. Unlike Bitcoin and potentially Ethereum recognized as commodities, XRP is not currently classified as such by the SEC. This regulatory uncertainty significantly diminishes its chances compared to other cryptocurrencies with clearer classifications.
Our official alt coin ETF approval odds are out. Litecoin leads w 90% chance, then Doge, followed by Solana and XRP. We are only doing for 33 Act $IBIT-esque filings. But def poss to see futures or Cayman-subsidiary type 40 Act stuff get through as well. https://t.co/JSaNnifjbu
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 10, 2025
For comparison, a spot Solana ETF has been given a slightly higher 70% chance of approval. Solana also faces regulatory challenges, as the SEC identified it as an unregistered security in its lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase. However, Bloomberg suggests that the acknowledgment of Grayscale’s Solana ETF proposal by the SEC may give it a better chance of approval than XRP.
Among the cryptocurrencies assessed, Litecoin (LTC) ETFs have the highest likelihood of approval, with a 90% probability. This is primarily because LTC does not face the same regulatory scrutiny as other altcoins. Bloomberg’s analysts indicate that the SEC likely considers Litecoin a commodity, making it a more straightforward candidate for ETF approval.
Meanwhile, Dogecoin (DOGE) has stronger odds than XRP and Solana (SOL). Although Bloomberg did not provide an exact percentage for DOGE, its regulatory status as a proof-of-work cryptocurrency with no history of being classified as a security could work in its favor.
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Polymarket’s More Optimistic Outlook
While Bloomberg’s estimates suggest a moderate chance of an XRP ETF receiving approval, Polymarket users appear more optimistic. According to the prediction market platform, XRP ETF products currently have an 81% chance of approval by the end of the year. This sentiment reflects stronger confidence in the potential for regulatory acceptance than what Bloomberg’s analysis indicates.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has previously expressed certainty that an XRP ETF will eventually be approved. He believes it is only a matter of time before such a product enters the market.
SEC’s Stance and Market Implications
The SEC’s reluctance to classify XRP as a commodity remains a major hurdle for ETF approval. Unlike Litecoin, which appears to be in a more favorable regulatory position, XRP’s association with past legal battles involving Ripple continues to impact its standing in the eyes of regulators.
Nevertheless, the growing interest in cryptocurrency ETFs suggests that new products could eventually gain approval as regulatory clarity improves.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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