XRP has entered a critical phase where long-term technical structure carries more weight than short-term price fluctuations. After rebounding from recent lows, the asset now trades at a level that has historically determined whether XRP enters sustained bull markets or prolonged corrections.
Market participants increasingly focus on higher-timeframe confirmation as momentum compresses near a decisive threshold.
This discussion intensified following a technical outlook shared by Egrag Crypto, a widely followed analyst known for tracking XRP’s macro indicators. His analysis highlights a single long-term metric that has consistently separated XRP’s explosive growth phases from its most severe drawdowns.
Why the 21-Month EMA Matters for XRP
The 21-month exponential moving average has acted as a reliable trend validator throughout XRP’s trading history. During previous cycles, XRP produced its strongest macro rallies only after price broke above this moving average, retested it, and held it as support on higher timeframes. Those confirmations preceded XRP’s most aggressive upside expansions.
#XRP 21-Month EMA: Green… or Red? 🤔🔥
The 21-month EMA has been #XRP’s truth detector for years.
🟢Every time price breaks above the 21 EMA, retests, and HOLDS , we get explosive macro moves (🟢green circles).
🔴When price gets rejected and loses it, deep corrections… pic.twitter.com/eCjRf2RsbT
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) January 2, 2026
In contrast, whenever XRP failed to reclaim or lost the 21-month EMA on a monthly close, deep and extended corrections followed. This repeated behavior established the indicator as a long-term “truth detector” for XRP’s market direction.
XRP Sits at the Decision Zone
XRP now trades directly on the 21-month EMA, placing the market at a pivotal inflection point. Price action around this level reflects consolidation rather than weakness, as buyers continue to defend the zone while volatility tightens. This setup suggests that the market prepares for resolution rather than stagnation.
According to Egrag Crypto’s assessment, the current structure closely resembles previous bullish launch phases where XRP held the EMA before entering powerful macro advances. While confirmation remains essential, present conditions align more with historical continuation patterns than with rejection scenarios.
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Bullish Outlook If Support Holds
If XRP maintains support above the 21-month EMA on a monthly closing basis, the structure favors long-term base formation. Under this scenario, momentum can rebuild steadily, allowing liquidity to follow trend confirmation.
Historical cycles show that once XRP confirms this support, price expansion often unfolds over multiple months rather than through short-lived spikes. Such a confirmation would strengthen projections toward double-digit price territory as the next macro phase develops.
Downside Risk Hinges on Monthly Close
The bearish scenario activates only if XRP closes a monthly candle below the 21-month EMA. A confirmed loss would weaken the long-term structure and shift risk toward deeper retracement zones. Past cycles show that XRP typically requires extended consolidation after losing this level before regaining bullish momentum.
At present, this outcome remains conditional and unconfirmed.
Why the Monthly Close Will Decide Everything
Short-term volatility often distorts market perception, but the monthly close removes that noise. XRP’s positioning at the 21-month EMA means the next monthly candle could determine whether the asset resumes its macro uptrend or enters a corrective phase. History suggests this level rarely produces ambiguous outcomes once confirmation arrives.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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