Stellar (XLM) has continued its prolonged downtrend, recently printing new local lows as bearish pressure intensifies. Over the last 10 weeks, XLM has steadily declined, and the latest technical structure reflects growing weakness. XLM is trading at $0.2312, down nearly 4%, with further downside signals emerging across timeframes.
Key Price Patterns
- Descending Triangle (Daily)
The chart shows a clear descending triangle pattern, with lower highs forming since late February and flat support around $0.22–$0.23. A daily close below this level confirms a breakdown with targets near $0.18 or lower.
- Head and Shoulders (4H)
On the 4H chart, XLM formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern in late March, with a neckline break of around $0.24. The breakdown has since been validated and aligns with bearish continuation.
- Bear Flag (1H/15M)
Shorter timeframes, including the 1H and 15M charts, exhibit minor bear flag formations — small upward consolidations within a strong downward channel. These often precede further selling, confirming momentum alignment across multiple levels.
Technical Indicators
- Bollinger Bands (20 SMA)
Price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart, showing strong bearish volatility. Bands are widening, which typically precedes trend acceleration. On lower timeframes, the price repeatedly rejects the mid-band, confirming the sellers’ control.
- MACD (12, 26)
The daily MACD has turned decisively bearish again, with a recent crossover below the signal line and deepening red histogram bars. On the 4H and 1H charts, MACD continues to trend negative with no signs of bullish divergence, supporting the continuation of the trend.
- EMA (20, 50, 200)
Price is well below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, both of which have curled downward. On intraday timeframes, EMAs act as a dynamic resistance. The 200 EMA is above $0.26, far from current levels — highlighting how far bears have dragged the price from its longer-term mean.
- RSI
Daily RSI sits near 30, indicating oversold territory but no reversal signal yet. On the 4H and 1H, RSI remains below 40 — a bearish bias. The lack of bullish divergence suggests continuation is more likely than reversal in the immediate term.
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- Volume
Volume has risen on down days and faded during minor bounces — a classic bearish volume profile. A sharp spike in buy volume is needed to signal capitulation or reversal.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Support: $0.2120 / $0.1980
- Resistance: $0.2290 / $0.2460 / $0.2690
- Breakout Level (Bullish Invalidation): $0.2750
- Breakdown Target: $0.1800 – $0.1650
Fundamental Analysis
Stellar continues to struggle against broader altcoin weakness, especially as institutional attention remains fixed on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Additionally, Stellar’s utility in cross-border payments faces competitive pressure from Ripple (XRP), newer L1 solutions, and regulatory uncertainty.
The lack of major adoption news or partnership catalysts has made XLM less reactive in bullish cycles. Market-wide risk-off sentiment, combined with tighter monetary policy and slowing crypto venture capital inflows, adds further headwind.
Price Action Outlook (Next 7–14 Days)
Unless bulls defend the $0.2120 level with high volume, XLM risks dropping toward the $0.18 zone. A minor relief rally may test $0.229–$0.246, but without reclaiming $0.27+, the bearish structure remains intact. Consolidation between $0.198 and $0.23 is the most likely near-term scenario unless macro sentiment improves significantly.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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