In a notable shift, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick has adjusted his Bitcoin forecast, now suggesting a potential surge to $120,000 by the close of 2024. This upward revision is tied to a nuanced analysis, emphasizing reduced miner sales and evolving profitability dynamics.
Initially projecting a $100,000 valuation for the coming year, Kendrick now sees this as a conservative baseline figure considering the evolving landscape of miner profitability.
This prediction was mentioned in a recent email sent to an insider where Kendrick called $120,000 valid, representing an almost 300% increase. He also expects Bitcoin to reach $50,000 this year.
Geoff Kendrick noted, “We are reiterating our BTC year-end price target of around $100,000, with the potential for an increase due to decreasing miner sales.”
Mining Profitability and Bitcoin’s Ascent
The driving force behind this bullish projection is the increasing profitability of mining operations. As miners adapt to sell fewer tokens while maintaining cash flow, a natural consequence is a reduced supply of Bitcoin, thereby propelling prices upward.
Anticipating a sell-off by miners in the second quarter of 2024, Kendrick envisions a gradual decline in sales over time. This pattern historically emerges as Bitcoin’s price surpasses the average total cash cost of mining. This strategic adjustment could potentially reduce Bitcoin’s net supply by approximately 250,000, impacting prices and influencing the inflation rate.
“If the BTC price reaches $50,000 in the first quarter of 2024, as we predict, the ‘BTC less all cash costs’ calculation will rise to $30,000.
“Essentially, selling only 27% of the BTC mined in the first quarter of 2024 will generate the same absolute level of excess cash as selling 100% in the second quarter of 2023,” Kendrick added.
The Effect of Bitcoin ETFs
Heightened interest from Wall Street giants exploring the creation of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is fueling Bitcoin’s current surge. Even fake news, such as the fake BlackRock Bitcoin ETF filing from October, has a great impact on the market.
This institutional endorsement has triggered a ripple effect, with optimistic predictions gaining traction. Tom Lee from Fundstrat, for instance, has recently set an ambitious target of $200,000 within the next few years.
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Due to diminishing costs in producing new Bitcoin, mining profitability is also on an upward trajectory. Some of the biggest miners have strategically cut mining expenses. Combining that with lower energy prices has heightened profitability.
The upcoming “halving” event expected in April 2024 is likely to catalyze industry consolidation, further reducing mining expenses.
Because Bitcoin is the biggest cryptocurrency in the market, the effects of the coming halving event could impact the rest of the crypto industry. One analyst expects Cardano to surge 2,700% to $11, and more surges are expected across the crypto market as the halving event gets closer.