Cryptocurrencies often spark debate over scarcity, tokenomics, and the mechanics that drive value. XRP, in particular, operates on a consensus-based ledger with a unique deflationary model, yet many market participants underestimate the true magnitude of its supply reduction.
A deeper look at network mechanics reveals that as adoption scales, XRP’s burn could far exceed conventional projections.
Vincent Van Code recently highlighted this issue on X, presenting a “Supply Meltdown” simulation that examines XRP burn under varying levels of network usage. Collaborating with AI tools, he modeled scenarios ranging from routine transaction volume to extreme global adoption at the XRPL’s maximum capacity of 3,400 transactions per second (TPS).
According to Van Code, most observers calculate XRP burn using the current low-fee, low-activity environment, overlooking how the ledger dynamically scales fees as demand increases.
The "Supply Meltdown" Simulation 🌋
Headline: Everyone is calculating the $XRP burn wrong. 🧵
The "base fee" (0.00001 XRP) only exists when the network is quiet. But what happens if the world actually starts using the XRPL at its 3,400 TPS limit?
The Congestion Math:
As the…— Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) January 24, 2026
How XRPL Fees Respond to Network Congestion
XRP’s base fee currently sits at 0.00001 XRP per transaction during periods of low congestion. Van Code notes that this metric fails to capture real-world dynamics. The XRPL uses a Load Factor to prevent spam, which increases fees exponentially as the ledger fills. In effect, higher transaction volume drives higher burns, amplifying XRP’s deflationary impact.
The simulation illustrates the contrast. On a standard day with 1.2 million transactions, the burn amounts to roughly 450 XRP. At near-global adoption levels—293 million transactions daily at base fee—the burn jumps to nearly 3,000 XRP.
When congestion scales fees to 0.001 XRP, daily destruction exceeds 290,000 XRP. At extreme gridlock, with fees reaching 0.01 XRP, the simulation shows over 2.9 million XRP burned per day.
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Deflationary Mechanics and Market Implications
Unlike Proof-of-Work tokens, XRP fees do not reward validators or Ripple; they are permanently removed from circulation. Van Code emphasized that under maximum usage, the network could destroy up to one billion XRP annually, creating a self-reinforcing deflationary cycle tied directly to utility. This structural scarcity could profoundly impact long-term value if adoption accelerates.
Utility as the Ultimate Value Driver
Van Code’s analysis underscores a broader principle: XRP’s value derives from real-world use rather than speculative trading. As more institutions and individuals transact on the XRPL, each interaction reduces circulating supply, aligning utility with scarcity.
Investors and ecosystem participants can view this dynamic as a structural advantage, reinforcing the network’s long-term potential while minimizing reliance on retail-driven hype.
By modeling fee behavior under maximum throughput, Vincent Van Code demonstrates that XRP’s deflationary potential is far greater than commonly perceived. The simulation highlights how widespread adoption could transform the ledger into a powerful engine for both liquidity and scarcity, reshaping market narratives around one of crypto’s most structurally unique assets.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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