Arthur (@XrpArthur), a well-respected figure in the crypto space, has commented on a shift that caught many by surprise. He highlighted a sharp move on Polymarket that now places the chance of XRP reaching $3.2 in 2025 at only 15%.
His post included the chart, but his message focused less on the odds and more on what traders might miss if they look only at sentiment.
He pointed to signals that continue to build strength. He created a contrast that sets the stage for a closer look at sentiment markets’ reaction to the uncertain timeline.
📉 Polymarket odds for XRP hitting $3.20 in 2025 are in freefall.
The market is now pricing only a 15% chance.
But here’s the irony:
🟦 On-chain signals are strengthening
🟦 Exchange reserves are draining
🟦 Institutional inflows are risingPrediction markets react to… pic.twitter.com/Gn5Rvh7GlK
— Arthur (@XrpArthur) November 28, 2025
Shifting Odds On Polymarket
Polymarket now prices a 15% chance of XRP hitting $3.2 before 2026. That figure marks a clear retreat from earlier levels. Traders move quickly on uncertainty. They often react to price action during weak periods. The chart in Arthur’s post shows a steady drop in confidence as the market tracked XRP’s struggle to hold momentum.
The shift illustrates how prediction markets change when traders consider only direction rather than context. A long price pause can influence these odds even if the underlying market structure stays stable.
Arthur responded by pointing out real usage signals. He reminded followers that on-chain activity often strengthens before sentiment turns. His remarks aim to show that Polymarket odds tell only one part of the picture.
On-chain Strength Builds
Arthur wrote that “on-chain signals are strengthening”. Activity on the XRP Ledger grows across several measures. Transactions stay stable. New addresses continue to appear. Settlement usage remains consistent.
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— TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025
He also said exchange reserves continue to fall. Lower reserves often signal reduced sell pressure because fewer tokens are held on exchanges. That trend supports a healthier setup for future price action. His final point focused on rising institutional inflows.
Multiple XRP ETFs have also launched recently, offering institutional investors better entry points. Larger players continue to move into the asset even as prediction markets turn cautious. That contrast strengthens his argument that sentiment indicators react faster than fundamentals.
What’s Next for XRP?
The drop in odds looks negative at first glance. Yet Arthur framed the shift as a sentiment swing rather than a change in underlying strength. He said that prediction markets react to fear. His message encourages traders to consider real data rather than short-term price action. This data suggests XRP remains bullish.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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