Expert Predictions On Ripple Penalty, Significant Decisions and Appeal Timeline

The legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been a top topic in the cryptocurrency industry since its beginning in December 2020. The case is near its end as recent developments suggest it might be settled soon.

Last month, the SEC raised the stakes by seeking a hefty $2 billion penalty against Ripple for alleged violations of securities laws regarding institutional XRP sales.

Ripple has contested these charges, and its Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, outlined the company’s official opposition earlier this week. Their arguments counter the SEC’s claims and propose a significantly reduced penalty, ideally not exceeding $10 million.

Penalty, Timeline for Conclusion, and Appeal

With the case entering its final phase, industry observers are offering their predictions on the potential outcome. Attorney Jeremy Hogan is one such figure, suggesting the dispute might be settled for $100 million. He believes the judge will order $0 in disgorgement instead of the SEC’s proposed $876.3 million but will order Ripple to pay $100 million as a penalty.

Hogan bases this prediction on his analysis of the case so far and anticipates a conclusion by July or August this year. However, he believes both parties will file notices of appeal, which will send the case to the D.C. Appeals Court. He believes the ruling will come in 2025.

Ripple’s Potential Advantage

Many within the cryptocurrency community believe Ripple holds a stronger position due to its three consecutive victories in court throughout 2023. A significant win in July saw Judge Torres rule that Ripple’s programmatic sales on secondary trading platforms did not constitute security offerings.

This decision was further bolstered when the magistrates rejected the SEC’s attempt to appeal this ruling. Later in the year, the SEC also dropped its aiding and abetting charges against Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, and Executive Chairman, Chris Larsen.

The outcome of this lawsuit will significantly impact XRP and the broader cryptocurrency market. Many believe an unfavorable ruling could cause an XRP decline. The lawsuit has hampered XRP’s growth, and a significant decline could drive away old investors and deter new investors.

From Hogan’s analysis, the lawsuit could go on longer once both parties appeal, but investors are hopeful that this will not hinder XRP’s performance in the 2024 bull run.

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