Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has shared a new technical outlook for XRP, focusing on how the asset historically reacted after reclaiming the exponential moving average (EMA) ribbon on the weekly chart.
In his latest post on X, the analyst compared previous market cycles and assessed which historical expansion pattern is most likely to repeat during the current cycle.
The analysis is centered on three major XRP rallies from past cycles. Each is represented on the chart with a different color. Egrag Crypto argued that the market structure supports a move similar to XRP’s earlier 1,250% expansion rather than its largest historical rally.
#XRP – Which Historical EMA Ribbon Move Is Most Likely? 👀
On the Weekly Time Frame, #XRP has historically exploded AFTER reclaiming and expanding away from the EMA Ribbon.
Historical expansions:
⚪ White Move:🚀 ~2,400%
🔵 Blue Move:🚀 ~1,000%
🟢 Green Move: 🚀 ~1,250%Now… pic.twitter.com/L0U9Z5mJTs
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) May 8, 2026
Historical XRP EMA Ribbon Expansions
According to the chart shared by Egrag Crypto, XRP has repeatedly recorded significant upward movements after reclaiming and moving away from the EMA ribbon on the weekly timeframe. The analyst highlighted three historical examples.
The first example, marked in white on the chart, showed XRP climbing roughly 2,400%. That move represented the strongest expansion among the three historical cases presented. The second move, marked in blue, recorded approximately 1,000% growth. The third move, highlighted in green, delivered an increase of around 1,250%.
Egrag Crypto explained that XRP has not yet fully reclaimed the EMA ribbon in the current structure. However, he stated that previous cycles indicate that strong upward momentum often begins after that confirmation. His chart showed XRP trading below several key EMA levels while maintaining a structure that resembles earlier accumulation and breakout phases.
Analyst Assigns Probability to Each Scenario
The analyst also provided probability estimates for each potential expansion scenario. He stated that the green setup, representing a 1,250% move, currently appears to be the most likely outcome for XRP in this market cycle.
According to his assessment, the probability of XRP achieving a 1,250% rally stands between 50% and 55%. He said this scenario aligns best with the current macro structure, liquidity conditions, and the current market cycle.
Egrag Crypto assigned the second-highest probability to the blue scenario, which projects a 1,000% increase. He estimated the likelihood of that move at around 30% to 35%. The analyst suggested that this outcome could occur if momentum weakens earlier than expected or if liquidity conditions remain limited across the crypto market.
The least likely scenario, according to the analyst, is the white expansion pattern that previously produced gains exceeding 2,400%. Egrag Crypto estimated the probability of such a rally at only 10% to 15%. He stated that XRP would likely require extreme market euphoria, substantial liquidity inflows, and full-scale market mania for that level of expansion to occur again.
Focus Remains on Market Structure
Egrag Crypto concluded his analysis by emphasizing that market structure remains more important than short-term market noise. He maintained that the green expansion path currently offers the most realistic outlook for XRP if the asset successfully reclaims the EMA ribbon on the weekly chart.
The chart attached to the post also projected possible price ranges tied to each expansion scenario, with the green setup targeting levels above $15 while the more aggressive white projection extended significantly higher.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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