Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto (@Steph_iscrypto) shared a chart showing how XRP’s price interacts with the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). The chart spans multiple cycles from 2015 to 2026, illustrating a consistent pattern.
According to the post, “When price is below the 50-week SMA, the long-term trend has turned bearish, and the moving average becomes resistance.” This observation highlights the SMA’s role as a key indicator for cycle analysis.
🚨 This $XRP chart highlights a pattern that has repeated in every major cycle.
The white line is the 50-week simple moving average.
Each cycle follows the same sequence: price breaks below the 50-week SMA, then retests it from underneath, the retest fails, and a larger decline… pic.twitter.com/cYYwbFHONL
— STEPH IS CRYPTO (@Steph_iscrypto) January 20, 2026
XRP Cycles and the 50-Week SMA
In previous cycles, XRP experienced major declines after failing to maintain support above the 50-week SMA. In 2015, the token dropped approximately 75.03% from its local high before recovering. Similarly, the 2018 cycle saw a decline of 85.77% after breaking below the SMA.
In 2022, the pattern repeated with XRP falling 68.61%. These figures reflect consistent market behavior over extended periods of time. XRP experienced a notable decline this weekend, falling from over $2 to $1.84. This dip could be a sign of things to come.
Recent Price Action and Current Levels
XRP is currently trading at $1.89. The price recently approached the 50-week SMA after its resurgence in early January. However, it has failed to reclaim that level. This mirrors the conditions observed in past cycles, where the SMA acted as resistance after a downward breach.
The white line on the chart indicates how each retest of the moving average failed, resulting in extended declines. Analysts consider this sequence a reliable measure of market trends for XRP.
Where Is XRP Going Next?
Using previous cycles as a reference, XRP’s current level near $1.89 indicates it is at a critical juncture. Past declines ranged from 68% to 85% after failing the SMA retest. This would put XRP’s target range between $0.59, a level not seen since late 2024, and $0.27, a price XRP has not fallen to since early 2021.
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While the present situation is not an exact prediction, the historical pattern provides a framework for evaluating potential support and resistance levels. Price action around the SMA remains a decisive factor in defining the next phase of the market cycle.
Steph Is Crypto emphasizes that the 50-week SMA is a central element for analyzing XRP cycles. The consistent pattern of breaking below the SMA, failing to reclaim it, and experiencing subsequent declines has repeated across multiple years. If XRP doesn’t recover quickly, it could repeat the pattern.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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