Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto has published a detailed technical outlook for XRP, outlining the potential consequences of a rare chart pattern known as an Ascending Broadening Wedge.
In an analysis shared on X, the analyst emphasized that while XRP could soar to $17, the probability remains higher for a sharp retracement to $0.65. The post was accompanied by annotated charts and a schematic representation of the wedge formation, illustrating the contrasting paths XRP could follow depending on key support and resistance levels.
#XRP: A Fork in the Road – Either $0.65 or $17!
Don’t shoot the messenger! I'm just sharing the probability of a potential formation. Technical analysis (TA) is all about probabilities and possibilities; there are no certainties.
The current formation, the Ascending… pic.twitter.com/2NWAy6j1dH
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) April 5, 2025
The foundation of EGRAG’s analysis is the Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern, a technical structure characterized by diverging trendlines that signal increasing volatility and a potential directional breakout.
The analyst notes that technical analysis is based on probabilities rather than certainties. He reiterated that his observations are not predictions but assessments of what the chart pattern statistically implies.
Conditions for a Bullish Breakout
According to the analyst, XRP is currently within the boundaries of this wedge, and several crucial price levels must be met to confirm a bullish outcome. The first key milestone is a daily close above $3.50. Without this close, the bullish scenario cannot begin to form convincingly.
From there, XRP would need to advance into the $5 range. However, simply touching this level is not sufficient. The price must decisively close above $5, and EGRAG stated that a failure to do so would increase the chances of the wedge pattern playing out according to its more common bearish outcome.
Following a rejection from the $5 range, XRP will revisit the $1.90 level to form a successful retest. A bounce from that level and a subsequent attempt to break above $5—preferably reaching and closing above $6—would signal the beginning of a potentially explosive move. According to the wedge’s measured target, that breakout could propel XRP to $17.50 within two to three weeks.
Downside Risk Remains Dominant
However, EGRAG highlighted the statistical nature of this setup, pointing out that the Ascending Broadening Wedge historically breaks to the downside in 70% of occurrences. Should XRP fail to meet the criteria for a bullish continuation, the analyst warned of a potential decline to $0.65.
A red zone at this level was marked on the chart to signify its importance as a downside target. The path toward this bearish scenario would become more likely if XRP is rejected near the $5 level and fails to complete a proper retest of $1.90.
Despite the bearish probability outweighing the bullish one, the analyst did not express immediate concern that the pattern was in motion. He explained that, in his view, the formation is not yet complete. He emphasized that the real test will come once XRP approaches and attempts to close above the $3.50 level. Until that occurs, the pattern remains hypothetical rather than an active threat or opportunity.
Community Guidance and Final Thoughts
In conclusion, EGRAG reminded the XRP community to remain composed and unified. While the range of outcomes is wide, he urged followers not to react emotionally to the potential of either extreme.
His final note was one of cautious optimism, reiterating that the formation will only begin to validate if specific price conditions are met. Until then, the chart remains a framework for watching the market unfold rather than a conclusive forecast.
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