Crypto analyst ChartNerd has cautioned that XRP is approaching what he described as a decisive technical moment.
In a recent post, he wrote, “XRP: It’s MAKE or BREAK.. In just 7 minutes, I explain the importance of $XRP holding this 200-week EMA backtest. It remains one of $XRP’s biggest battles to date.” The statement was accompanied by a detailed video analysis focusing on the asset’s interaction with its 200-week exponential moving average.
In the video, ChartNerd explained that XRP is currently trading directly at its 200-week moving average, which he marked on the chart with a red line. He noted that the data for this indicator stretches back to May 2017 and that historically, XRP’s behavior around this level has often determined the direction of its broader trend.
According to him, the asset has previously either held this moving average as support and continued higher, or lost it and confirmed further downside.
🚨 $XRP: Its MAKE or BREAK..
In just 7 minutes i explain the importance of $XRP holding this 200 week EMA backtest
It remains one of $XRP's biggest battles to date 👇🏼 https://t.co/hzhwK9GDIb pic.twitter.com/2Pv7UohIhL
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) February 13, 2026
XRP Price Action
XRP price was around $1.40 and $1.41 during the analysis. ChartNerd emphasized that the 200-week EMA is currently positioned at approximately $1.41, while XRP is trading around $1.40. He described this alignment as a “critical inflection point” based solely on the indicator.
If XRP manages to hold above the moving average and establish support, he stated that it could set the stage for continuation toward new all-time highs. However, if weekly closes occur below this level, he warned that it could open the door to a deeper correction.
Specifically, he pointed to the $0.70 region as a potential downside target. He explained that this level corresponds to previous highs from 2023 and early 2024, which were broken in October 2024 but have not yet been back-tested as support. He added that a loss of the 200-week EMA could imply a retracement toward that area.
Historical Precedents From 2018 and 2022
To reinforce his analysis, ChartNerd referenced previous cycles. He discussed 2022, when XRP reached a local high near $1.97 before entering a bear market. During that period, the asset retested its 200-week EMA, formed a lower high, lost the level, and subsequently corrected further.
He noted that when XRP lost the 200-week EMA in that cycle, it declined approximately 49 percent, a move that would roughly align with a drop toward $0.70 if repeated from current levels.
He also cited 2018, following XRP’s previous all-time high of $3.30. At that time, the asset consolidated around the 200-week EMA before losing it. This preceded a substantial decline into the 2020 lows near $0.11.
According to the analyst, confirmed weekly closes below the moving average and a failed retest from underneath have historically been among the most bearish signals for XRP.
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Bullish Case Hinges on Defending Support
While outlining the risks, ChartNerd also described a bullish scenario. He pointed to a period when XRP consolidated above the 200-week EMA around $0.70 for over a year before eventually breaking out in November 2024. During that phase, the level was defended as support, which preceded a rally he described as roughly a sixfold increase.
If XRP now holds the 200-week EMA and forms a higher low, he said, Fibonacci extension targets could project toward $7.60 on the next impulsive wave. He added that a move into the $5 to $7 range could be possible deeper into 2026, but only if the current level is maintained.
ChartNerd concluded by stressing that his analysis was not a prediction but an interpretation of historical chart behavior. He reiterated that multiple weekly closes below $1.40 would significantly increase the probability of a deeper correction, while sustained support above the 200-week EMA could position XRP for a renewed advance.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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