The price of Ethereum (ETH), the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, could be headed for a significant increase in the coming months, fueled by growing optimism surrounding the approval of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for the digital asset.
Analyst’s Prediction and Historical Justification:
Market analyst Miles Deutscher believes a potential surge is on the horizon for Ethereum. Citing the historical performance of Bitcoin following the launch of its spot ETF, Deutscher suggests ETH could reach $6,446 by July 23rd if a similar regulatory green light is granted for Ethereum.
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Deutscher’s analysis hinges on the precedent set by Bitcoin’s price movement. Following the approval of a spot ETF for Bitcoin in October 2021, the leading cryptocurrency experienced a notable 75% surge within a 63-day timeframe. This historical trend offers a basis for projecting a similar upward trajectory for Ethereum, assuming a spot ETF receives the necessary regulatory nod.
Rising Odds of a Spot ETH ETF and Potential Inflows
Recent developments suggest that a spot ETH ETF might be closer to reality than ever before. According to a recent Reuters report, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has engaged with at least one exchange to discuss revisions to their ETF filing, this shift in stance indicates a potentially higher likelihood of approval.
Also, Bloomberg analyst, Eric Balchunas increased the probability of a spot Ethereum ETF approval from 25% to 75%. His post received over a million views in an hour, causing a significant rise in ETH prices and a surge in the broader altcoin market.
Furthermore, analysts at Standard Chartered, including Geoff Kendrick, anticipate significant inflows into Ethereum-based ETFs following their approval. Their projections suggest potential inflows ranging from $15 billion to $45 billion within the first year of operation, pushing ETH prices towards $8,000 by the end of 2024. This optimistic outlook aligns with projections for Bitcoin, with some analysts predicting a climb to $150,000 by the year’s close.
Crucial Deadlines and Regulatory Scrutiny
The path toward a spot ETH ETF approval is not without hurdles as the first round of deadlines for applications is fast approaching. The final deadline for the VanEck ETF filing falls on May 23rd, followed by deadlines for ARK Invest and 21Shares on May 24th.
While the SEC’s recent request for revisions from Nasdaq and CBOE regarding their ETF applications might signal a potential path toward approval, the regulatory body remains cautious.
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The SEC has historically adopted a cautious approach towards cryptocurrency ETFs, citing concerns about market manipulation and underlying asset security.
While regulatory hurdles remain, the historical precedent set by Bitcoin’s ETF launch and the increasing likelihood of the SEC approval suggests a potential price surge for Ethereum in the coming months. With significant inflows anticipated upon ETF approval, analysts remain bullish on Ethereum’s long-term prospects.
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