Vandell Aljarrah, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist and a well-known XRP advocate, published a sharp assessment of current market conditions after President Donald Trump announced plans for a $2,000 tariff dividend.
Aljarrah wrote that “a $2,000 dividend payout just validated the entire cycle thesis,” warning that markets now face “a massive final rally” followed by “an inevitable, brutal crash.”
His statement reflects a cyclical market view that periods of peak optimism and liquidity are often precursors to significant corrections.
A $2,000 dividend payout just validated the entire cycle thesis. We’re staring down the barrel of a massive final rally, followed by an inevitable, brutal crash.
No, this time is not different.
— Vandell | Black Swan Capitalist (@vandell33) November 9, 2025
Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Dividend Proposal
President Trump’s proposal, announced on November 9, 2025, promises most Americans a payment of at least $2,000 funded by revenues from import tariffs. The plan excludes high-income earners and, according to the administration, would return tariff proceeds to citizens as a dividend.
Treasury officials have indicated that the payout could take the form of direct checks or tax credits, though the specific framework has not been formalized. Analysts note that tariff revenues have totaled around $195 billion in 2025, but questions remain about whether that figure can sustain such a large-scale payout.
The announcement has been interpreted as a populist economic measure aimed at boosting household liquidity and consumer sentiment. However, Aljarrah’s reference to the “cycle thesis” suggests he views the move not as a sustainable stimulus but as a sign of a late-stage economic peak.
From his perspective, large-scale cash distributions near the height of a market run-up confirm that speculative and fiscal excesses have reached their limit.
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Why XRP Could Perform Differently?
While Aljarrah cautions about a coming correction? XRP supporters argue that the token occupies a unique position. Ripple’s partnerships are introducing blockchain settlement into traditional finance systems, and these developments could strengthen XRP’s utility regardless of the broader market direction.
XRP also benefits from ongoing adoption by financial institutions seeking faster, cost-efficient settlement solutions. In a downturn, liquidity-focused technologies often gain traction as institutions aim to reduce costs and operational risks. Even if traditional markets contract, the growth of digital asset infrastructure could sustain demand for XRP.
Aljarrah’s perspective highlights a tension between cyclical financial behavior and technological evolution. If markets do enter a correction after a final rally, assets with real-world use cases and institutional integration, such as XRP, may remain resilient to bearish pressure.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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