Ripple’s XRP is once again approaching a decisive moment in its market cycle, with price action hinting at a potential breakout that recalls some of its most dramatic rallies of the past. The cryptocurrency recently tested a key technical level that, in prior cycles, preceded major surges.
Analysts are now closely monitoring whether history will repeat, potentially setting XRP up for gains that exceed current expectations.
Learning from Past Cycles
Market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO draws attention to two historical episodes that frame the current discussion. During the 2017 bull run, XRP repeatedly found support on its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA).
That resilience paved the way for an explosive rally of more than 1,600 percent, a move that still stands as one of the asset’s most dramatic performances. Four years later, in 2021, a different backdrop unfolded.
#XRP – 2 Scenarios Based on Historical Price Action ($9.6 – $33):
If you're not yet familiar with the most likely outcomes, it might be time to catch up! Here’s a closer look at two pivotal cycles in #XRP's history.
🏳️21 EMA Historical Support Levels
▫️2017 Cycle:#XRP… pic.twitter.com/oE1MAMhsXA— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) September 23, 2025
The SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple temporarily dropped XRP below this technical level, but after reclaiming and retesting it, XRP rallied approximately 414%.
These cycles highlight the 21 EMA as more than a routine metric. For XRP, it has functioned as a litmus test of momentum, providing a foundation for sharp advances once buyers reassert control. That historical relationship between price and the 21 EMA is central to EGRAG CRYPTO’s present outlook.
Current Market Structure
The latest test of the 21 EMA occurred on June 9, 2025, when XRP revisited this crucial zone after a steady climb through the spring. At the time of writing, XRP trades near the upper $2 range, with clusters of resistance forming between $2.80 and $3.10.
Market data confirm improving liquidity and accumulation, while trading volumes remain robust compared with earlier in the year. This technical context strengthens the case that the June retest could act as a launch pad, provided support holds and broader crypto sentiment remains constructive.
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Scenario One: A Conservative Upswing
If XRP maintains its footing above the 21 EMA and builds on recent momentum, EGRAG CRYPTO projects a measured move toward approximately $9.60. This target reflects a more moderate repetition of the 2021 pattern, suggesting a substantial yet attainable advance.
Achieving this scenario would require sustained buying pressure, decisive breaks through near-term resistance, and a continued absence of regulatory or macroeconomic shocks.
Scenario Two: A Historic Breakout
A far more ambitious possibility envisions XRP climbing toward the $33 mark. Such a surge would echo the magnitude of 2017, demanding not only unwavering support at the 21 EMA but also a series of powerful rallies through successive resistance levels.
Realizing this outcome would depend on a combination of global adoption catalysts, institutional demand, and a favorable macro environment that encourages risk assets to outperform.
Balancing Potential and Risk
While these scenarios are technically grounded, neither is guaranteed. A failure to defend the 21 EMA, a shift in market sentiment, or adverse regulatory developments could invalidate the bullish thesis and send XRP back toward lower ranges. Traders and long-term holders alike will be watching price behavior around the moving average for confirmation.
EGRAG CRYPTO’s analysis underscores how closely XRP’s fate remains tied to historical precedent. Whether the market delivers a conservative rise toward $9.60 or an extraordinary climb to $33, the coming months will test the strength of a pattern that has defined two of XRP’s most important cycles.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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