In a recent X thread, attorney Jeremy Hogan offered a detailed analysis of the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Hogan’s opening post sets the tone for the discussion, asserting that “for all Intents and Purposes,” the Ripple v. SEC case is over. He highlights that while important hearings are still to come, the time for speculation and hand-wringing about the case’s outcome is finished.
Read Also: Jeremy Hogan to Ex-SEC Official: XRP Price is Influenced By The SEC, Not Ripple
Hogan points to the SEC dropping all charges against Ripple’s executives, eliminating the possibility of a trial. Hogan states that nothing new is going to come out of the case now: “The facts have been set – nothing new or surprising will be coming out. Which means the Court will be issuing a Final Judgment (probably) sometime next year. Only Ripple needs to worry about that.”
"For all Intents and Purposes" the Ripple v. SEC case is over.
Yes, important hearings will be held in the coming months (deciding a judgment of up to $770 million is of course important).
But, YOUR time for hand wringing over this case is done. IMO.
🩳🧵
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 21, 2023
Hogan also explores the possibility of a settlement before the final judgment. He notes that both the SEC and Ripple have the option to file appeals if they don’t reach a settlement. However, according to Hogan, the SEC has a 14.2% chance of winning on appeal. He makes the case that how the trial judge wrote her opinion, which was heavily fact-based, may not improve the SEC’s odds.
Appellate Court’s Role
Hogan speculates on the potential outcomes of the case should the SEC appeal and win in 2025. He points out that the Appellate court would have to send the case back for further judicial findings and determinations due to the judge’s initial order.
Hogan also highlights the uncertainty surrounding certain aspects of the case, such as “other distributions” of XRP, where the judge did not make specific findings. He speculates on the potential outcomes should these issues be revisited. The most likely outcome would be a ruling in Ripple’s favor, Hogan stated.
Hogan extends this uncertainty to programmatic sales, emphasizing that the Appellate court may need to send these issues back to the trial court for further determinations.
Read Also: Attorney Jeremy Hogan Reveals SEC’s Only Ammunition against Ripple in XRP Lawsuit
A Lengthy Legal Process
According to the lawyer, for the SEC to win, it would have to not settle with Ripple, win an appeal with its 14% chance, get through more hearings, and win another appeal.
As these hurdles seem insurmountable, Hogan points out that he hasn’t included an Act of Congress or change in political regime which could harm the SEC’s chances even more.
Hogan’s sentiment is similar to the feeling shared when key staff within the SEC shared his belief that Ripple would eventually win the case. As Hogan said, for all intents and purposes, the case is over.
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