XRP could be entering an important period against Bitcoin as the market approaches the final quarter of 2026.
Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has pointed to historical performance data suggesting that XRP has often delivered stronger relative performance during parts of Q4, despite periods of significant weakness in October.
In a post on X, Egrag Crypto examined the historical monthly performance of XRP against Bitcoin and identified what he considers a notable seasonal pattern. His analysis focuses on the XRP/BTC pair rather than XRP’s performance against the U.S. dollar, making the comparison important for investors assessing whether capital could begin rotating from Bitcoin into XRP.
#XRP vs #BTC – Q4 SEASONALITY Is Super Promising:
When we measure ripple:native performance against bitcoin:native, the historical monthly averages show a powerful Q4 pattern:
🏳️September: +17.0% 🟢
🏳️October: -19.6% 🔴
🏳️November: +30.5% 🟢
🏳️December: +44.1% 🟢But the real… pic.twitter.com/trkXpBKltU
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) September 2, 2026
Egrag Identifies Strong Q4 Pattern
According to Egrag, historical monthly averages show XRP outperforming Bitcoin by 17.0% in September, while October has recorded an average decline of 19.6%. November follows with an average gain of 30.5%, and December records the strongest average performance at 44.1%.
Egrag said the sequence matters more than the individual monthly averages. He characterized September as a period of “rotation,” followed by an October “shakeout,” before XRP potentially enters an “expansion” phase in November and an “acceleration” phase in December.
The analyst particularly highlighted October as the historically difficult month. He stated that XRP underperformed Bitcoin in 11 of the last 13 Octobers, making October weakness a recurring feature of the historical data he presented.
However, Egrag pointed to previous years in which substantial October declines preceded much stronger November performances. In 2020, XRP fell 22.4% against Bitcoin in October before gaining 93.8% in November. In 2024, XRP fell 24.9% in October before a 179.2% increase against Bitcoin in November.
XRP Has Mostly Underperformed Bitcoin in 2026
Egrag also examined XRP’s performance against Bitcoin throughout 2026 and noted that XRP has spent most of the year underperforming.
His figures show XRP declining 0.5% against Bitcoin in January, 1.8% in February, 4.4% in March and 8.8% in April. XRP then posted a 1.0% gain in May before falling 2.0% in June and 4.8% in July. August provided a stronger result, with XRP gaining 4.0% against Bitcoin.
That August performance is central to Egrag’s current outlook. He questioned whether the move could be the beginning of a broader rotation from Bitcoin into XRP.
XRP/BTC August High Becomes Key Level
Egrag said the key question now is whether the XRP/Bitcoin rotation has started. He believes a break above the August high could strengthen the case for a significant Q4 move.
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The analyst also cautioned that historical performance does not guarantee the same outcome in 2026. Still, he suggested that an October correction would not necessarily invalidate a bullish outlook if XRP follows a pattern similar to previous years.
“If XRP/BTC breaks its August high, Q4 could get explosive,” Egrag wrote.
He concluded that October could bring renewed volatility and concern, while November and December could favor patient investors.
Egrag ended his post with the statement, “Men lie. Women lie. Charts and numbers don’t lie,” emphasizing his reliance on the historical data presented in his analysis.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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