XRP has a history of declining in August during U.S. midterm election years. Crypto analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) drew attention to this trend, noting data spanning a decade of price history.
The numbers tell a consistent story. XRP dropped -5.71% in August 2014, fell -22.96% in August 2018, and declined -13.70% in August 2022.
August 2026 currently sits at -5.41% month-to-date. Every midterm August on record has closed in the red. ChartNerd notes the average August decline across these midterm years sits at 14%.
The Data Never Lies..$XRP has historically provided a negative return in August during ever previous midterm year 🇺🇸
August 2014 : -5.7% 🔴
August 2018 : -23.0% 🔴
August 2022 : -13% 🔴
August 2026 : -5.1% MTD* 🔴The average August decline during midterm years = 14%. https://t.co/ZwjYttCDQt pic.twitter.com/FWOpFoEXi8
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) August 11, 2026
History Has a Way of Repeating
XRP is well-documented for cycling through familiar price behavior. Traders and analysts have long noted the asset’s tendency to repeat structures across market cycles. ChartNerd’s analysis leans into that characteristic.
If August 2026 follows the historical midterm average, XRP faces a potential 14% decline from current levels. The range of prior midterm August moves gives a clearer picture of what that could look like. The mildest recorded drop was -5.71% in 2014. The most severe was -22.96% in 2018. Those two figures establish the outer boundaries of what history suggests is possible.
The midterm pattern extends beyond August. XRP has also declined in June during every previous midterm year. June 2026 was no exception, closing down -22%. That consistency adds weight to the case ChartNerd is building.
Watching the $1 Level
XRP currently trades at $1.01. ChartNerd has predicted for months that the asset will fall below $1. At current prices, any meaningful decline puts that level at risk. If XRP follows the average predicted value, a 14% drop would bring it to approximately $0.87.
A decline matching the 2018 low of approximately 23% would push the price to around $0.78. Even a repeat of the smallest midterm August drop of 5.71% would pull XRP below $1. The $1 level carries psychological weight, and a confirmed move below it would shake out many weak investors.
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— TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025
Where is XRP Headed?
The historical record is consistent across three separate midterm cycles. The sample size is small, but the pattern has produced zero exceptions so far. ChartNerd’s analysis builds a case across 2014, 2018, and 2022, and the current month is tracking in the same direction.
August 2026 has time remaining, but Polymarket data also shows a 65% chance that the asset will close below$1 in August. The month-to-date figure of -5.41% already places it within the historical range, and multiple signs suggest the decline will continue.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.
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